🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Made $436K on Bets on Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was made public, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from confidential information of the event. Sudden Shift in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the month's conclusion surged in the time leading up to Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been seized. One account, which joined the platform recently and made four bets, all on Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a starting bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a cryptographic address for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Platform data shows that participants estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. But the market's assessment had climbed to eleven percent by late Friday night and skyrocketed in the early hours of the next day, pointing to a sudden change in market sentiment just before the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a bet based on non-public details," said a financial reform advocate. A handful of other traders also made large payouts from predicting the capture. Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies Politicians are beginning to pay attention. A bill introduced on Monday aims to prohibit government employees from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a bet. Market Background Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in recent years, with participants able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to politics. Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the Biden administration. But it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency. Insider trading is a crime in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting arena. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids such activities of any form."